Changes in consumer behavior drive farming industry
Farmers are accustomed to change; however, some fail to realize that change affects their industry far beyond weather and pests.
“It’s not the old days anymore,” said Damian Mason, keynote speaker at the 2026 Summer Crop Summit hosted by New York Corn & Soybean Growers Association at Rodman Lott & Son Farms in Seneca Falls, NY. “We now buy more ag products than we sell. The U.S. consumer wants foreign products.”
Mason called it the “end of an era,” where buying American-grown goods mattered more to consumers.
Other changes affecting farmers include shifts in the population. For the first time in U.S. history, more women are seeking higher education than men. These factors and more point to a population decrease. The projected post-pandemic baby boom didn’t happen.
For farms that operate based upon “get big or get out,” a smaller population of consumers is troubling.
One of the saviors of the ag economy in the past few decades has been exporting to China. However, “the China economic miracle is over,” Mason said. “Every ag economist says, ‘Look at China.’ If everyone in the 1.4 billion population had a cheeseburger a week, look at what it would do for the U.S. ag industry. The average consumer there eats double the number of calories as 25 years ago. But they have some issues.”
He noted that the one-child-per-family policy of decades ago backfired when the Chinese government realized they needed more workers. The policy relaxed to allow more children per family but the population is not as robust as it would have been.
Beyond their population issues, China has other issues as a U.S. customer, such as seeking other trade partners like Brazil.
“China won’t be a customer of ours,” Mason said. “They want to replace us. From 1998 to 2022, it was China, China, China for the U.S. farmer.”
But now, China doesn’t need as many imports of commodities such as soybeans. About 50% to 55% of hogs around the globe are raised in China. That amounted to 42 million sows five years ago; however, Mason said, that has plummeted to 38 million sows because of low demand.
By comparison, the U.S. raises only 6 million hogs and is second in the world for hog production. The Chinese market is clearly the highest producer and a decline in demand for pork means China doesn’t need as many soybeans to feed the animals.
Brazil represents 2% of the global economy. Mason said it is becoming China’s “satellite” for raising the commodities it needs. The opportunities in Brazil are huge for expanding agriculture.
“There are 90 million acres in Brazil that are not even in production,” Mason said. The U.S. currently has 85 million acres in soybeans, to provide perspective. Brazil also has much lower labor costs than the U.S.
Some have suggested the continent of Africa as the “next China” to replace that lost market, but Mason indicated several problems with that idea.
“Africa has 54 countries,” he said. “There may be multiple people in charge of each country.” Ever-shifting leadership is a problem when working on long-term trade agreements.
In addition, less than 2% of the global gross domestic product comes from the entirety of Africa. Despite the size of the continent, the people living there do not heavily participate in the world economy.
Europe isn’t much of a prospect either. “As a country becomes older, they’re more protective of their assets,” Mason said. “Europe has been there.”
He expressed annoyance with American consumers’ lack of knowledge about their country’s products, such as believing milk contains hormones, genetically modified foods are dangerous or eschewing gluten despite no medical reason to do so.
Mason voiced the thought in the back of every farmer’s mind: What if this isn’t just another cycle?
“Right now, no country on the planet has a pocket full of money and an empty plate,” Mason said. “The ‘80s were a tough time. We did a bunch of stupid stuff and it took us 20 years to get bailed out.”
Government-issued cheese, for example, was a means to keep dairy farms going while the government supplied cheese to families in need and school cafeterias. “But it was government cheese, not good cheese,” Mason quipped.
He views biofuels as more “government cheese” – a program offering tax credits to help buy corn from farmers, but “it floats the boat up everywhere” since farmers selling for feed could obtain better prices as well.
He also shared some positive points for American corn and soybean farmers. Beef production relies on these commodities and as nutrition advice changes, so do consumer preferences.
“Real protein is popular and fat is no longer what makes us fat,” Mason said. “Beef has gotten expensive but consumption has remained the same, but the high prices are starting to wane.”
To create more revenue streams, more dairymen are producing beef and dairy crossbred animals to channel into the beef market. With calves selling for $1,400/head, “this is very, very good” for dairy farmers, Mason said.
When the supply chain broke down during the pandemic, many people turned to farm stores and chose freezer beef from local farmers.
He noted that fluid milk is growing again in popularity. Since it’s a whole food compared with plant-based milk alternatives, milk is back. “When people return to real food, it’s good for us,” Mason added.
Becoming more reliant on local rather than foreign food sources tends to stabilize the food supply chain, which Mason said is good for American farmers. Recent trends that can challenge farmers include downplaying seed oils and high fructose corn syrup.
“You’ll see calls for decreasing sweeteners that include high fructose corn syrup,” Mason said. “Dairy can use oil as a fat source.”
He likened the current war against seed oils and high fructose corn syrup as similar to the tobacco settlements 30 years ago.
“Who get sued if processed food goes the same way?” he pondered.
He cautioned farmers about the rise of AI and its huge demand for water to cool equipment in data processing centers. Although water shortages are not as big an issue in the Great Lakes and Finger Lakes region (for now), farmers in drier climes may experience shortages.
Factors affecting farming may continue to challenge the industry, but Mason remains positive.
“I’m still pro-American ag,” he said.
