Mother Nature must be crazy: What to do when more rain causes more droughts
We joke about the weather in New York always changing, but when you have a farm to run it’s not always a laughing matter. Sometimes our weather patterns can spell disaster.
In a recent workshop on agricultural resilience in the Mohawk Valley, CCE Statewide Ag Climate Resiliency Specialist Kitty O’Neil discussed how climate change is reshaping farming conditions in New York. From thermal shifts to bigger storms, our region is already feeling the effects.
O’Neil focused on helping farmers understand their exposure and begin planning to face the challenges our climate is bringing to their farms.
She outlined the process she calls the “Steps to Resilience” as follows:
• Understand exposure – Build a team to establish shared goals
• Assess vulnerability & risk – Determine what’s at stake
• Investigate options – Agree on potential impacts of greatest concern
• Prioritize & plan – Establish methods for reducing unacceptable risks and make a realistic plan, weigh- ing resources and benefits
• Take action – Implement those plans Since the environment is constantly fluctuating, this process should be viewed as a cycle, not a one-and-done process. Every season comes with its own unique challenges.
Frost Damage
Winter and spring are warming faster than summer and autumn, driven by rising greenhouse gases. Average annual temperatures continue to climb, with Syracuse now about 2.8º F warmer than in the 1980s. The growing season is lengthening, though still unpredictable with a lot of variation from year to year, and the last frost of spring and the first frost in autumn are trending to arrive later than before.
These shifts bring both opportunities and challenges: there’s more time for cover crops to establish in autumn and maybe a bonus fast-growing crop, but there’s also increased pest and disease pressure, erratic freeze/thaw cycles and muddy spring conditions that shorten planting windows.
Even as winters warm, later spring frosts especially threaten tree fruit and grapes. Earlier bud development means blossoms are more exposed when temperatures dip. O’Neil observed, “Winter cold is becoming less severe, but spring freezes have not decreased at the same pace as buds and flowers develop.”
Tools like Grape Cold Hardiness Risk Assessment and the CSF Apple Stage & Freeze Damage Probability Tool help farmers compare crop hardiness to forecasted lows. As O’Neil noted, frost and blossom lines on the apple frost tool “shouldn’t touch,” making monitoring essential.
Heat Stress
Days over 90º aren’t rising sharply, but maximum temperatures are increasing everywhere in New York State. Heat stress is better measured through the Temperature-Humidity Index (THI), which works similarly to a “feels-like” temperature.
For example, lactating dairy cows begin experiencing stress at a THI of 68. Thirty years of Syracuse data show an increasing trend from 40 to 60 hours above stress thresholds. Over the same 30-year period, nights per year that don’t get cooler so livestock can recover have increased from two to nine, drastically impacting milk production if it continues for more than a day.
In drier environments, farmers can cool their barns with mist alone because it evaporates quickly, but in the Northeast where the air is more humid it doesn’t work. Farmers are adjusting by avoiding livestock movement on hot days, calving earlier in the year, improving shade with silvopasture systems and using water drip and other cooling methods suited to our humidity.
Hydrological Paradox
New York is getting wetter overall, with only the Long Island area trending drier. Otsego County now receives about 12 more inches of rain per year than in the 1980s, while Syracuse has gained 5.9 inches. Heavy storms are becoming more frequent, with 100-year (1% probability) events occurring closer to every 56 (in Cooperstown) to 72 (in Trenton Falls) years rather than every 100 years. However, just because we’re getting more rain doesn’t mean we have more water available.
Water from gentle, all-day showers penetrates the soil and remains available to plants, animals and people. Water from intense downpours runs off quickly, reducing infiltration and leaving less soil moisture for the weeks that follow.
O’Neil said, “The atmosphere sucks up more water when it’s hot and it sucks up more moisture out of the soil, and with less rain we have less water in soil.” This creates a hydrological paradox: more rain and more drought, a “weather whiplash” effect that farmers face more frequently.
Adaptation & Survival
Farmers have access to a growing suite of climate-smart tools, including freeze risk models, irrigation timing tools, cover crop schedulers, NEWA’s pest and disease forecasts (and others currently in the development stages which can be found at climatesmartfarming.org/tools).
USDA’s Adaptation Resources for Agriculture was described by O’Neil as a “gold standard” for building a farm-specific plan. A free PDF of this resource can be found here. Strategies include high tunnels for high-value crops, reduced tillage, improved soil health, drainage and water-capture systems and shifting planting dates. Every farm’s exposure and risks are different, and capital, labor and local conditions shape what’s possible.
Climate change is reshaping agriculture in the Mohawk Valley, but farmers have tools and strategies to build resilience. Developing a full adaptation plan takes time, but starting the process quickly is important for everyone facing these challenges.
As O’Neil reiterated, everyone’s second step – assess vulnerability and risk – is different, and farmers are welcome to reach out to her at kitty.oneil@cornell.edu with questions as they navigate these changes.
by Joseph Armstrong
