On the evening of March 15, 2025, a fairly serious electric storm hit central New York and much of the Northeast. The flash-to-bang time for the first clap of thunder was seven or eight seconds. With the speed of sound at approximately 1,000 feet/second, this meant that the first lightning bolt struck ground or trees about 1.5 miles from our downtown Hartwick home.

This electrical storm was caused by the southern branch of the northern jet stream surging northward. A warmer, moisture-laden air mass slammed into a drier, colder air mass originating farther north. This merger caused huge amounts of condensation and similarly great electrical activity plus rapidly dropping air temperature.

Here’s the climatic significance of this late winter electric storm: Exactly one-half year from that date, the jet stream is supposed to do the exact opposite, allowing a frigid air mass to plunge into our region. That said, we should experience a killer frost on/about Sept. 15.

Scientifically, here’s the basis for this first autumn-time frost forecast: The climatological factor calling the shots here is the jet stream polar drift rule. This states that the first serious springtime electrical storm (in latitudes near the 45th parallel, halfway between the equator and the North Pole) will be followed six months later by autumn’s first killer frost. The 45th parallel runs through Canton, NY.

That’s how the jet stream phenomenon is supposed to play out – unless El Niño (“Little Boy”) or La Niña (“Little Girl”) “misbehave.” El Niño occurs when the Pacific Sea surface temperature (PSST) rises more than 2.7º above normal for that particular time of year. La Niña occurs when the PSST drops more than 2.7º below normal for that time of year.

With the current climatological tug-of-war between the “children” being relatively tame, I’m fairly comfortable making that six-month projected forecast. My comfort level is backed up by the following March 13, 2025 statement from the National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA): “The probability of El Niño remains very low throughout the forecast period, increasing gradually from 1% in April – June to 20% in November – January 2025-26.”

The dynamic between El Niño and La Niña is framed by climate change, which is intensified by the build-up of atmospheric greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide and methane. Increasing global surface temperatures, more droughts and heightened storm intensity are becoming more likely. With very few exceptions, atmospheric scientists examining the bigger picture believe the following is a glaring recent example of manifest climate change: In 2025, Los Angeles continues recovering from the worst wildfires it or any U.S. city has ever experienced.

As more water evaporates into the atmosphere, such becomes fuel for more powerful storms developing. More heat in the atmosphere and warmer ocean surface temperatures lead to increased wind speeds in tropical storms. Rising sea levels expose higher land mass locations not usually subjected to the erosive forces of waves and currents. Despite all this, the above NOAA statement makes me feel comfortable (but not happy) predicting that six months from March 15, most of the Northeast could expect its autumnal first frost on or about Sept. 16.

(By the way, the fact that we got an early electric storm on March 15 did not mean that we should expect no more springtime frosts.)

Wildfire smoke plagued the Northeast for much of the 2025 growing season thus far, though not as conspicuously as was the case two years ago. Lost solar radiation exacted its toll, as crops just didn’t receive as much ultraviolet light as they needed – a lot of it was bounced back into space. To perform properly, crops need four inputs: precipitation, warmth (soil and air), fertility and solar radiation – and corn is particularly sensitive if it’s shorted on that last item.

Weather forecasts the first week of this month made me take tarps and cover the frost-sensitive vegetables in our garden, particularly the tomatoes, peppers and eggplants – all members of genus Solana. Then on Sept. 8, fellow ag journalist Troy Bishopp contacted me through Facebook with this message: “My friend Paris Reidhead has predicted this six months after your first thunderstorm in spring. He’s generally pretty close that someone will get a frost.” Accompanying his message was a photo taken that morning by someone in Madison or Oneida County of a very frosted old hay meadow that had been forwarded first to Troy.

Based on Bishopp’s official frost report, the following are the final stats for this part of the 2025 growing season. The total time between first thunder and first frost was 178 days – close enough. Since I’ve been doing these tallies in the 1990s, I’ve logged 27 wins (including this year’s), six misses and a few recusals (due to extra cantankerous Los Niños and Las Niñas. Those figures give me a batting average of 81.8% – better that some of my grades at Cornell.

How much does tillage release carbon from the soil? We can get good carbon status assessment by measuring soil organic matter (OM) before and after tillage – and by measuring topsoil depth, before and after tillage. If topsoil depth and soil OM remain the same, we can assume that the field in question is carbon-neutral.

OM is presumed to be 58% carbon. But agronomists stress that any tillage introduces oxygen to soil biology. There, non-plant life transforms oxygen into carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas whose atmospheric build-up intensifies climate change.

The early electric storm very likely forecasted the growing season finish – particularly for frost-sensitive crops like corn and soybeans – and definitely those Solanas.