At the bustling 2025 International Dairy, Deli & Bakery Association (IDDBA) conference in New Orleans, industry insiders gathered to glean insights from Jonna Parker, principal and fresh foods client insights group industry expert with Circana.

With a keen eye on consumer behavior and a pulse on purchasing patterns, Parker’s presentation, “Through the Eyes of the Consumer: Trends that Matter in Dairy, Deli & Bakery in Retail, Foodservice and Beyond,” offered a data-driven dive into the shifting sands of shopping, snacking and supper-time solutions.

Pinpointing Purchasing Patterns: Just-in-Time Shopping

Parker painted a compelling portrait of post-pandemic purchasing preferences. The dominant direction? “Just-in-time shopping,” with consumers buying only what they need when they need it. This nimble approach to grocery buying has become the norm, primarily propelled by the pervasive fear of food waste. Rather than stocking up in bulk, buyers are cherry-picking smaller quantities more frequently.

This spells significant potential for profit in the dairy department. Everything from fluid milk and mozzarella to yogurt and whipped cream often find their way into shopping carts on a whim. The key to cashing in on dairy is not in pushing supersized servings or multi-packs but in convincing customers to come back more often. Frequent, fresh-focused foot traffic fuels faster turnover and ultimately more sales.

Additionally, online trends are influencing which foods end up in shopping carts. “We need to make sure we don’t just get in the cart but that we stay in the cart,” Parker said. “Getting your dairy into consumers’ baskets more often, even in smaller amounts, will profit sellers more than occasional larger purchases. “The opportunity lies in building a habit.”

Bakery’s Balancing Act: Flat Sales & Flaky Favorites

While some segments are soaring, the bakery business battles stagnation. Sales remain mostly flat, save for a flaky exception: croissants. The buttery, golden favorite continues to rise – both in ovens and in overall popularity. Whether enjoyed as a breakfast base or a lunchtime luxury, croissants remain a rare bright spot in an otherwise challenging category.

Deli Developments: From Cooling Growth to Culinary Convenience

Turning to deli, Parker noted a dip in department dynamism. Growth has cooled over the past 52 weeks. But amid the slump, there’s still gold in gourmet – specifically in prepared foods and specialty cheeses.

Today’s shoppers are short on time but still savoring the taste. Prepared, portable and premium products present a path forward. Shoppers are signaling a strong appetite for solutions that simplify supper without sacrificing sophistication. Specialty cheeses, meanwhile, satisfy a desire for small luxuries and easy entertaining.

Another growing trend is the use of “unconventional” poultry for eggs. Multiple exhibitors showcased their quail eggs, like Spring Creek Quail Farms out of Ontario.

Snack Savvy: Expanding an Elastic Category

Parker pointed to snacking as a sweet spot in the current climate. “It’s an expandable category,” she explained, meaning consumers can be convinced to consume more simply by having the right products within arm’s reach. While lunch remains a lesser meal in terms of spending, snacks are stealing the show.

Breakfast is booming too, especially early eating on the go: “39% of consumers are now eating breakfast before 8 a.m.,” Parker revealed, a trend tied to the return-to-office routine. Commuters are again reaching for grab-and-go goods.

Breakfast’s Big Moment: Protein & Portability

In today’s fast-paced foodscape, breakfast has become the sales battleground. With the day starting earlier for many, breakfast purchases are increasingly made en route rather than in-home. Quick-service restaurants (QSRs) and casual cafés are seeing a brunch-time boost, especially on weekends.

Meanwhile, high-protein, low-sugar items are flying off shelves. This pairing resonates strongly across all demographics, but especially with health-conscious early risers.

John F. Martin & Sons, based in Pennsylvania, showcased their offerings of premier hams, bacon, deli meats and more.

Consumer Caution: Recession Worries & Retail Response

Despite all the opportunities, there’s a lingering layer of concern. Many consumers are cautious, concerned a recession might arrive by year’s end. That anxiety translates into more calculated choices and budget-based buying.

But smart sellers aren’t discouraged – they’re adapting. Parker emphasized the importance of meeting modern needs with meaningful solutions. “Retailers that understand how to make life easier will always have an edge,” she said.

This includes everything from meal kits and mix-and-match deli trays to ready-to-eat and ready-to-heat meals. Whether it’s reducing prep time or avoiding waste, the message is clear: convenience commands consumer commitment.

Dinner Dash: Speed Sells

Taking for dinner time details was Bridget Kraft, executive director of new business development, food and beverage consumption with Circana. She underscored a striking statistic: half of all dinners in the U.S. are now made in under 15 minutes. That dramatic shift toward speedy suppers creates new chances for the deli, dairy and bakery sectors to shine.

Quick-cook quiches, microwaveable mac and cheese, marinated meats and meal-ready sides are all part of this picture. Anything that helps harried households get dinner on the table faster is fair game for innovation.

“Think about how your products can meet that need, what can be cooked quickly, what can be paired together, what can save time,” Kraft encouraged. In this new food economy, time is currency and producers that help shoppers save it are set to see success.

Shopping for “Special” Occasions

Producers can also make more meaningful sales by marketing to consumers who shop for the “everyday special occasion.”

Post-pandemic especially, more people are hosting gatherings just because. Special occasions are no longer limited to holidays – they can be events when anything out of the ordinary happens. “Ninety percent of these special occasions are non-holidays,” Kraft reported. “That presents a huge opportunity to tap into that market.”

Another interesting data point: Consumers are three times more likely to choose foods and beverages because they want to try something new and/or different while at a special occasion (think fancy charcuterie boards).

The maple chipotle chevre being sampled by Vermont Creamery was an example of the “swicy” trend that’s popular now.

Final Thought: Cross-Channel Clarity

Their overarching message was one of integration and the need for analyzing across all consumer channels to paint the full picture. Retail data alone isn’t enough. The most accurate, actionable insights come from combining retail sales, foodservice foot traffic, operator spend and at-home cooking behavior.

It’s no longer just about what consumers buy, it’s about where, when, why and how. Only by understanding the entire consumption context can producers and retailers position themselves to win.

In conclusion, the presentation reminded attendees that while trends can be turbulent, clarity comes from close consumer connection. From early risers to late-night snackers, from busy parents to single professionals, the modern food shopper is complex but they’re also consistent in their call for convenience, value and taste.

Success starts with strategic sensitivity to how customers live and a willingness to walk in their shoes, shop their baskets and share their tables. Those who listen, learn and lean into evolving habits will not only survive, they’ll thrive and shape the shelves and sales of tomorrow.

Circana is a market research and technology company with tools that provide in-depth consumer behavior data, industry trends and expert analysis of market research to drive business growth.

Vermont Creamery was offering samples of some of their new products.

Additional reporting by Courtney Llewellyn