Crop Comments: Fertilizer Forecasting Without Natural Gas Crises: One Can Only Hope

The dynamics of fertilizer economics is not boring.

Four years ago, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine seriously impacted the world’s natural gas (methane) playing field. Russia controls most of Europe’s natural gas resources. In 2022, Russia shut off Ukraine’s natural gas supply, trying to freeze its neighbor into military defeat; natural gas is Ukraine’s prime heating fuel. It’s also the main building block for the planet’s nitrogen fertilizers.

Here’s the relationship between natural gas and commercial fertilizer. Start with a very simple compound: methane (CH4). Methane (a mined gas) and water are combined and then subjected to high temperature and extreme pressure. The resulting chemical reaction yields carbon dioxide (CO2) and hydrogen (H) gas.

Earth’s atmosphere is 78% nitrogen (N), removed from the air by fractional distillation. This N is blended with isolated H, also under very high pressure and temperature conditions. Thus blended, one N and three Hs become one anhydrous ammonia (NH3) molecule. Add the right amount of CO2 to the NH3 (along with more high temperature and pressure) and we’ve synthesized urea.

Examine one more common (and potentially dangerous) M source: ammonium nitrate (NH4NO3). According to Oxford University, this chemical compound is manufactured industrially by the neutralization reaction between ammonia and nitric acid (HNO3). This product is then purified, concentrated, formed into pellets and dried. Other fertilizer ingredients, very dependent on natural gas, include mono-ammonium phosphate, diammonium phosphate, ammonium sulfate and urea/ammonium nitrate (UAN).

Increasingly, average American citizens are learning more about energy economics directly, and indirectly, about commercial fertilizer. They’re also learning about the Strait of Hormuz, which I learned about during the energy crisis of 1973, when gasoline prices increased by 50% almost overnight. My walking fertilizer encyclopedia is Jeff Cassim, general manager of Liquid Products, Seneca Falls, NY. On April 13, Cassim told me the global natural gas situation had intensified by another notch.

In Europe, Russian natural gas resources help provide a relief valve for that energy commodity’s supply/demand bottleneck, caused by the mess associated with the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf.

According to Wikipedia, the Strait of Hormuz “provides the only sea passage from the Persian Gulf to the open ocean and is one of the world’s most strategically important choke points. During 2023-2025, 20% of the world’s liquified natural gas (LNG) and 25% of seaborne oil trade passed through the strait annually. It is a major source of petroleum products for Europe and Asia, thus ‘critical’ to Europe’s energy security.”

Cassim said, “We received word today [April 13] that a 40,000-ton boatload of liquid UAN will not be coming into Philadelphia in time [for planting] because the plant was struck (bombed) by Ukraine, resulting in major production loss, so they only had 27,000 tons to load. They looked for a smaller ship; since none was available, they had to cancel the shipment, so Philadelphia liquid UAN is sold out for the season!

“The Gulf will continue to be a big deal on urea: 40% comes from there and most of the ‘lift’ has been baked in. Barge urea is now nearly $700/ton in NOLA [Port of New Orleans, LA]; then freight to here (Northeast) = $850/ ton delivered.”

He said, “The big deal is nitrogen, sulfur and phosphorus! Potash has no issues as it comes out of Canada and Russia, not the Middle East. But the price of sulfur 90% increased markedly, since so much sulfur goes into making batteries in Indonesia.”

Here’s the take-home message from all this geopolitical fertilizer confusion: Most corn growers also grow soybeans. With soybeans being legumes (needing just a fraction of the N required by corn), this “Hormuz” economy is tilting the crop equation away from corn.

Also, higher energy costs should encourage growers to move some acreage slated for corn into soybeans, particularly if soil organic matter (OM) drops under a certain percentage. (Many growers look at 3.5% as being that threshold.) Lost soil OM means reduced water reservoir benefit.

USDA data show that 1% of OM in the top six inches of soil holds up to 27,000 gallons of water/acre.

Increasing OM enhances water holding capacity, making affected fields more resilient to weather extremes. Lost OM makes droughts drier, indirectly increasing the chance of wildfires.

Four main factors determine how crops perform: solar radiation, warmth (in growing degree days), precipitation and soil fertility. Wildfire smoke, increasingly common in recent years, intercepts solar radiation desperately needed by most crops.

According to Purdue University agronomists, examining corn ears from your fields helps estimate yields. One of the biggest concerns observed on corn ears examined in 2025 was tip die-back.

Corn ears normally fill kernels starting from the base of the ear all the way to the tip. Affected ear tips exhibit spots of missing and/or incomplete kernels. There are two main reasons for tip die-back: poor pollination, causing absence of kernel formation, and kernel abortion.

Silks emerging last from an ear during pollination, and the kernels that fill last during grain fill, are on the ear’s tip. Prolonged temperatures exceeding 95º F cause serious silk wilting, keeping pollen from reaching ovules, thus intensifying tip die-back.

Crop scientists recommend soil testing at least once every three years. Even with reasonably priced fertilizer, I never consider ignorance to be bliss. Use a lab that conducts base saturation percentages (to determine nutrient balance). In many situations, cutting back on fertilizer by half only reduces yields by a quarter. Lime improves fertilizer uptake efficiency significantly, particularly for phosphorus.

Stagger planting times to avoid temperature peaks hitting everything at once (particularly with corn). Prolonged hot spells can reduce pollen transfer through silk by half.

If soil OM is less than 3.5%, dairy farmers should consider growing brown midrib sorghum, sudangrass or one of their hybrids, which survive on half as much water as corn needs. Lower OM stores less water. Interestingly, sudangrass developed not too far away from all this Hormuz drama.

by Paris Reidhead