Howlett on markets
When you sell your crop matters. Michael Howlett, representing Howlett Farms in Avon, NY, presented “Markets with Michael” as part of the recent Corn Congress, an annual event hosted by Cornell Cooperative Extension’s Northwest New York Dairy, Livestock & Field Crops Program.
Howlett shared that from Nov. 18 to Dec. 18, 2025, “we traded one-half what the world produces,” he said. “The scope is so massive. You have to have a plan. If you don’t have a plan, you are along for the ride. If your marketing plan is to sell high, good luck.”
Unfortunately, it’s not that simple. “Managing risk is a plan, not a guess,” Howlett said. “Over 40 years or 14,600 tickets, your total probability of winning the lottery is approximately 0.002% – or roughly one in 46,500. The cost would be $29,200. It’s the same likelihood as selling at high. There is risk in trading futures in markets.”
He said the environment as to what direction the market is trending is getting more complex and chaotic daily. Positive and negative spins in the news can sway whether farmers want to sell or hold their goods.
“When people put articles in magazines or on the news, they make more money,” he said. “Venezuela – what will happen there? Is it bearish? Or bullish? Even with advanced knowledge, it’s hard to know.”
He touched on the Russia/Ukraine war and the political climate in Greenland as other news that could influence the market, but just how is uncertain. He encouraged farmers to look at the local supply, local bias, plan for next year, consider when to sell and if New York will run out of corn, but not to try to predict the future market.
“In New York, we had a tough corn yield, down 17.2%,” Howlett said. “I think it could’ve been worse, considering all we had thrown at us. Soybeans were down 21.6%. Soybeans surprised us. We’ll trade on this information and then we’ll go back to the headlines as to where the market will take us. There’s a chart in every ship at the bottom of the ocean, so you have to be careful only following charts.”
He believes that in November, soybeans provided a good example of “buy on the rumor of a deal and sell on a fact.” Farmers traditionally hear the rumor and wait on a result.
“A year ago, if I said, ‘Do you want to sell $5 corn?’ you’d be knocking over chairs,” Howlett said. “I think we’ll be seeing $5.11 by March.”
He described the best way to market as combining a “gut feeling” along with the practical sense that as a farmer, you need cash in the bank, as that’s a “sure thing,” he said – “not in the USDA dropping corn and soybean yields.”
Cash in the bank pays bills, equipment loans, rents/ mortgages and other debt.
“Don’t use grain bins like an ATM,” Howlett said. “Get it out of bins” – as moisture in the grain or inconsistent quality may lower its value unexpectedly. It’s nearly always better to sell grain earlier than to hold onto it too long.
